December Car Sales were bad....January is worse by far

[Everso Biggyballies]

Some US Brands January Car Sales Sales half of December

Firstly I will say that this isnt an Aussie figure.... I have not seen anything relevant to our market or other non US markets, but the troubled US market in January showed a fall of basically double that of January, and makes one have to feel that the worse is still to come.  With the future direction of the world market perhaps likely to be influenced by US results, and the global ownership of many of their brands..... well lets say these figures are not condusive to seeing any of the billions handed out in bailout loans being repayed in line with schedules, and the likleyhood of major brands being lost increases.

The hopes rely on new car launches in the first quarter revitalising the market.  Having seen the fact that the new (and quite beautiful IMO) Dodge Challenger (pic below) has done nothing for the Chrysler figures im not so sure I agree with some of the optimism.



Anyway a report on US January sales:

January’s new-vehicle sales will drop 30.1 percent from January 2008 and decrease 18.1 percent from December 2008, according to the analysts at Edmunds.com.

“Our research indicates that retail sales are pretty much flat compared with December,” said Jesse Toprak, executive director of industry analysis for Edmunds.com. “However, automakers’ decision to cut fleet sales and make other production cuts will cause a large sales decline to be recorded on the books.”

Automakers are expected to sell 730,000 units, including fleet sales.

January 2009 had 26 selling days, one more than January 2008, so when adjusted for this difference, sales decreased 32.8 percent from January 2008.

Among the major automakers, Edmunds.com forecasts the year to year decline in January sales (adjusted for more selling days) at:

Chrysler: -50 percent.
Ford: -32.5 percent.
GM: -40.4 percent.
Honda: -25.9 percent.
Nissan: -30.9 percent.
Toyota: -27.4 percent.
Industry Total: -32.8 (adjusted).


The combined monthly U.S. market share for domestic automakers Chrysler, Ford and General Motors is estimated at 46.1 percent in January 2009, down from 52.1 percent in January 2008 and down from 50.0 percent in December 2008.

"It’s a good thing that many automakers have been deliberately minimizing their fleet sales in an effort to bolster resale values," commented Michelle Krebs, senior editor of Edmunds' AutoObserver.com. "Unfortunately, in this economy, rental car companies and other traditional fleet customers are simply unable to buy as many cars as they used to."

But pent-up demand for new vehicles could provide a brighter February and March.

"Given the dramatic downturn in car sales since September, it is reasonable to assume there must be an underlying demand building," said David Tompkins, PhD, senior analyst for Edmunds.com. "Edmunds.com site traffic behavior in January reflected a 13 percent increase in purchase intent compared with December, so within the next six weeks, we should begin seeing those sales come through – though perhaps some will manifest themselves as late-model used car sales."

Times ahead are certainly not looking good in the US market.

[Oldtony]

Revived an old thread with the news that June has been the best month for 12 months for Australian car sales.
But under the hype it's not all rosy.
Total Sales were 102847 for the month.
Top seller Toyota  21410
               Holden  12167
               Ford     10194

That is well up on any month since last June but looking at the figures is interesting. Industry expected to be well down on last year because June 08 was boosted by sales made to beat the rise in the luxury car tax.
Figures this year were boosted by the other end of the market with light commercials leading the way because of the accelerated depreciation schedules offered on this years tax.

Preliminary figures indicate that the Toyota HiLux will be Australia's best selling vehicle for the month, and probably for the year. Corolla also outsold Holden. Both Ford and Holden did well on ute sales with Commodore and Falcon holding their own on fleet sales.
Sales to private buyers were not strong but German manufacturers, particularly VW and Audi were well up. BMW were in the embarassing position of not being able to fill all orders and are holding deposits for July delivery.

[Everso Biggyballies]

Interesting to note that Toyota almost sold as many as Holden and Ford combined  Despite your comment that much of this might have been due to Taxtime buyers taking benefit of depreciation schedules, the fact that Corolla outsold Holden (not sure if you mean that Corolla outsold Commodore or outsold Total Holden?) is indicative of them performing ok given market conditions and expectations.

Of course the downside of excess to expectations / sales budgets months caused by seasonal incentives is what effect this will have on the balance of the year, as one would expect people to have brought forward a purchase to gain the benefit. 

But clearly Toyota are cementing their market leadership in Australia emphatically.  The fact that imported brands such as BMW and VW are clearly doing well in the private sector is another blow for the local product.  Whether this German increase is currency influenced, or pricing influenced as a result of dumping European stock (unlikely to be dumping due to the RHD component being only the UK product in terms of Europe)  I am not sure  and I assume they talk in Euros now rather than DMark. 

Bottom line is it would appear to be that the future for Ford and Holden looks like being tough on all sides, and they will be erm....  'Holden' on to hopes that the Cruze will boost some sales given its high advertising and media spending on hthe product launch atm, and Ford will be praying it doesnt take any 'Focus' off their range. 

[f1engineer]

I think you'll find that it is the 50% tax break (40% over and above what you would normally claim GST.) that is driving the sales. Almost every business owner i know that turns over under 2.5 mill. is going for another depreciating asset called a motor car, pardon my lack of enthusiasim???, but they are just tools to make money to me. So for me, i would envisage that ANYONE who has a profiable business at the moment is in some sort of discussion with a dealer to renew the motorcar.
We are looking at 2, maybe 3.

[Oldtony]

Exactly what I was trying to say F1E.
Just about every tradie is buying a new ute, and if they can get it into the business plan a new car for the missus.
My understanding of the BMW, Audi and VW sales is that there has been a huge swing to diesel among those who can use a car in that range for business, ie. reps, real estate, management etc. I'm told that the local BMW dealer here has a major wait list n the upmarket end of the diesel range and Audi is in a similar position.
Sounds like Aussie buyers are catching on at last.

[Cammos]

Just a quick note on Toyota,

Often, it's not a uncommon thing, but it's very common for them to outsell both Holden and Ford combined. It's also worth noting they outsold Holden and Ford last year with about 239k cars to 234k (combined) (those are rough estimates).

Toyota just have a far more diverse selection of vehicles than what Holden and Ford do, plus they have far better quality (in my opinion).

Some factors leading to higher Toyota sales... Toyota Service Advantage, fixed price servicing for the Warranty period of the car.

To be perfectly honest with you, tradies buying UTEs instead of say a Colorado, Hilux, Nivara, Triton and so on are stupid! A holden ute has a less payload then the Z series, it uses strut suspension and is a sports car! The ford is more for tradies using leaf suspension and the payload is bigger than the Holden. The fact they are petrol don't have a diesel or atleast a direct injection liquid gas system is stupid.

What these tradies have to be careful of is, if they spend 40k on a work ute, it has to be purchased by their business and the business gets a tax break of 50% of the vehicle purchased. I know some young ones who have done this and can't figure out why they are not getting the money directly.

What many also don't know is, and I thought I'd throw it here for value

Lexus = Limited Export to the United States.

Lexus was first introduced for the American Market (obviously). and over time spread to the world. Australia's 23-25 lexus dealers are pretty much the only ones in the world that are separated from Toyota Dealers. Most others actually are within the Toyota dealership.

[Cammos]

vfacts.com.au

You should be able to get all the details you want there concerning vehicle sales, manufacture sales and so on.

mellor.net is good too for goauto news. Great read, highly recommended.

[f1engineer]

The one thing that I thought that i'd never hear....
I was getting some tyres on one of my vehicles and the 2 young fellas at the tyre fitters were saying that they would rather a v6 hilux than a ford or holden ute.
 

[bpratt]

The one thing that I thought that i'd never hear....
I was getting some tyres on one of my vehicles and the 2 young fellas at the tyre fitters were saying that they would rather a v6 hilux than a ford or holden ute.
 

I think if I was in the ute market, I'd be looking more at a v6 hilux ute than a holden or falcon ute.

The only thing that the other two have is a v8 option, and that's probably the only thing that people would buy them for now.

Of course, if there was a grunty performance diesel option for the hilux, I'd be more tempted to go for a hilux, but petrol-wise, the v6 hilux would be the only really sensible option of the 3.

[Everso Biggyballies]

Especially given that finally, many moons after the rest of society, Australia is finally waking up to the diesel option and the cost saving.  I think too many people here, certainly in the Joe Public sector, still think of diesel as a bus / large truck only fuel, and that it has no place in a car due to a lack of performance, noise and other past downsides.  Diesel Tech. has moved on from that.

I read somewhere that there has suddenly been a marked increase in smaller vehicle diesel sales in Aus.  (It may even have been here in relation to increases in the local market by Euro cars.  I know that in Europe now nearly 70 % of new cars are all diesel fuelled, even city type Barina cars are running happily with diesel engines and giving mpg figures in the 60's (sorry I dont yet live in a litres / 100 klm world, being an mpg man from the uK, so wont even try and give the equivalent)

[Oldtony]

Couple of points EB on the diesel revoloution.
There seems to be a considerable swing going on in the Luxury end of the market towards diesel. Audi, Merc, BMW, and Jag are all talking about that being the growth area in their sales.
At the small end of the market it seems that the Hyudai I30 has caught Toyota, Nissan and Mazda with a gap in thier options range by promoting the diesel option. It is gaining a significant proportion of sales. There is also a wait list for the VW Polo diesel and Renault, Peugot, Citroen and Skoda are all selling well in the next price bracket up.

[bpratt]

At the small end of the market it seems that the Hyudai I30 has caught Toyota, Nissan and Mazda with a gap in thier options range by promoting the diesel option. It is gaining a significant proportion of sales. There is also a wait list for the VW Polo diesel and Renault, Peugot, Citroen and Skoda are all selling well in the next price bracket up.

The i30 has been a big seller for them, and the diesels are somewhat popular with waiting lists for the diesels.

I asked someone about her diesel i30 the other week, and she was sure pleased with buying it. They're talking about getting over 1000 km per tank full, and that's without running the tank 'dry'.

Even though diesel sells for more per litre than petrol, the efficiency is so much greater, and therefore saves more money.

I just wish I had've waited a bit longer for the i30 to come out, as that's what I would've bought instead.

[Cammos]

One problem we have in Australia with Diesel is the fact we don't get the whole range. Australia Deisel is actually alot more 'dirty' than what EU get (apparently). So we miss out on this like the Corolla Diesel.

Also, if you browse the EU and US Toyota sites, you will notice they have Hybrid RAV4, Land Cruiser and so on.

I'll shut up about Toyota now :p

Toyota BTW do offer a diesel in their Hilux, but in the SR and SR5 and so fifth. High recommended too. Awesome torque and great fuel consumption!

[Oldtony]

My understanding is that since the sulphur limits were introduced for diesel in Australia the local brew was very nearly equivalent to Euro standards. Bio Diesel though is much more readily available over there although many manufaturers recommend against it's use.
The Corrola diesel engine is not looked upon very highly in terms of performance or economy as far as I have been told, certaianly not in the same class as the Euro makers or Hyundai.
Agreed about the HiLux diesel, it's a great workhorse.