Le Mans Series: Official Discussion Thread

[Mothers Worry]

Audi to replace R10 with R15 TDi

From autosport.com:

Audi to replace R10 with R15 TDi

Friday, November 28th 2008, 15:54 GMT

Audi has confirmed that it will replace its R10 TDi sportscar with a new model, the R15, next season.

The R10 was Audi's first turbo-diesel LMP1 car and followed the R8, which won the Le Mans 24 Hours five times in six years between 2000 and 2005.

The R10 won Le Mans in each of the three years since its introduction in 2006, and it will be superseded by the R15 TDi from 2009.

Audi claims the new car will have a smaller, lighter and more efficient TDi engine than the R10, and confirmed that it will be another open-topped car.

It is scheduled to test for the first time later this year, but will not be publicly launched until shortly before its race debut in Sebring 12 Hours in March.

"It was clear to us that we must develop a new car if we wanted to continue to be successful at Le Mans," said Dr Wolfgang Ullrich, Audi's motorsport boss. "The R15 TDi is the result. The step from R10 to R15 is significantly larger than it was from the R8 to the R10."

The marque also confirmed that Audi Sport Team Joest will again run a trio of its prototypes in the Le Mans 24 Hours next year.

[Oldtony]

The ACO EVO rules to be introduced for 2011, and effectively any new car between 2009 and 2011, stipulate new limits on engines. Diesel will be 3.4 litres, twin turbo max of 8 cylinders so Audi had to move to a new format. They have also limited fuel capacity and, importantly the number of persons and rattle guns involved in wheel changes. This makes it interesting that Audi have still gone with the open car concept. The major disadvantage of the Pug 908 was that it took lomger for a driver change than for a wheel change under the previous regs, but the open Audi could do the driver change comfortablt quicker than the wheel change.

[Timbit]

Can anyone confirm the 'closed car only' ruling for 2010 onwards? I had a feeling that the ACO has introduced rules that all LMP1 from 2010 had to closed cars, but Audi's decision to make an open top has me baffled!

[Everso Biggyballies]

Can anyone confirm the 'closed car only' ruling for 2010 onwards? I had a feeling that the ACO has introduced rules that all LMP1 from 2010 had to closed cars, but Audi's decision to make an open top has me baffled!

Timbit, you are quite right that the original rules specified that ALL LMP1 cars were to be of the closed type construction from 2010..... however that rule has now been reversed, (about April IIRC) after some protests from Audi and perhaps other manufacturers.....  The ACO will now NOT enforce the closed LMP1 prototypes rules from 2010 onward.  Dr. Ullrich of Audi does not like closed prototypes, and most new prototypes chassis/bodies being made today do not comply to the 2010 rules and would be unusable.

My belief is that it is part of the overall rush of aero style accidents that we had in the first 6 months of this year, or to put it differently, rather than set the next few years in concrete at a time when it is looking at a new overall aero reduction when the 2011 aero / body rules are set in stone. That is to say minimise the sweeping changes to one major change rather than a bit here and a bit there as a sort of band aid approach.

ACO statement from mid year ....

......after Hideki Noda suffered the sixth aerial accident for a prototype car since March during Wednesday's qualifying session, and the ACO believes that reducing corner speeds will solve the problem.

"(Aerial accidents) are a new phenomenon, as the regulations have not changed for this year," said ACO sporting director Daniel Poissenot.

"But I think we will have a different position for next year given the urgency of this. We will examine it.

"We need to look at the performance of the cars. We want to reduce downforce, which in turn will reduce corner speeds. All aero devices on the bottom of the cars will be banned for 2009."

The organisers of the race also outlined more plans to reduce the speed of the cars over the next couple of years with further aerodynamics reductions for 2010.


"We will do a lot of work for 2010 over the winter, but we want stability of three or four years, so there are no bad surprises for anyone. Current cars will still be allowed, but we will work to balance their performance with the new ones."

There is or has been for a while however, talk of LMP! 'Evo'.

-source: Automobile magazine, June 2008
"...a new top category tenatively called LMP1 Evo. In essence, this is the merger of today's LMP1 and GT1 classes, with two goals in mind. The first goal is to reduce speeds down to less than the 230+kph lap average exceeded in last year's twenty-four-hour race. The second is to shift appearances from fendered formula cars to racy road cars. ..."

Corvette C7R as seen in the June 2008 edition of Automobile Magazine:(Their 'Photoshop' I assume)






The actual engine rules for the Le Mans 24hr 2011 race have been released in the last week or so.....

2011 Le Mans‐24 Hours
Regulations

►Engines
LM P1

Diesel
Diesel 3.7‐litre 8 cylinders with twin turbos
520 bhp

Petrol
3‐4 litre 8 cylinders normally aspirated
900 kgs
2‐litre 6 cylinders single turbo

LM P2
Diesel

Series production 4‐litre 8 cylinders (with original supercharging system)
420 bhp
900 kgs

Petrol
Series production 4‐litre based on 2010 GT2
Strictly series production 4.5‐litre (according to the results obtained in 2009)


►Hybrid systems

The ACO wants to give manufacturers the greatest possible freedom to develop and use such systems while taking certain measures to control them.

Energy recovery systems will be free, provided they respect the following rules:
-
Recovery of energy from the brakes on the 4 wheels or from the heat of the exhaust.
-
Only the rear wheels can be used to drive the vehicle.
-
Electric systems are allowed only to recover energy from the brakes.
-
Energy can only be stocked in the form of electricity.
-
The car’s minimum weight will be identical to that of the other LM P1s using conventional engine technology (petrol or diesel): 900 kgs.
-
The internal combustion engine and the electric motor must be controlled by the driver using the accelerator pedal (push to pass buttons forbidden).
-
The quantity of usable energy stocked on board the vehicle must not exceed 1 MJ.
-
Installation of systems enabling the power to be controlled at the entry and exit of engines/generators and the energy dissipated on a lap of the circuit at the exit of the motor/generator.
-
The ACO will impose its own safety regulations.

http://www.lemans.org/sport/sport/reglements/ressources/2009/auto/reglement_2011_moteur_hybride_gb.pdf

[Mothers Worry]

ACO cancels Le Mans test day

From autosport.com:

ACO cancels Le Mans test day

Monday, December 1st 2008, 18:40 GMT

The organisers of the Le Mans 24 Hours have cancelled the race's traditional Test Day, scheduled for May 31, as part of a package of cost-cutting measures for next season.

A statement read: "In keeping with the cost reductions already begun with the 2009 ACO regulations, and the new orientations in 2011, the test day has been cancelled.

"This decision represents considerable savings for all the entrants, who must be ready at the circuit on Monday 8th June (scrutineering)."

The ACO has also reduced the length of all 2009 Le Mans Series races from four days to three, including scrutineering.

The test day has not always been a part of the event's schedule and wasn't introduced until 1959. It was dropped during the petrol crisis in the 1970s before being re-introduced in 1986-'87.

It was then cancelled again until 1993 whereupon it was sometimes used as a pre-qualifaction system to reduce the oversubscribed entry.

The ACO has used the current Test Day system since 2005.

[Timbit]

Thanks for that EB, appreciate the info! I guess in such an uncertain time for Le Mans racing, I guess having all teams conform to another set of regulations isn't the best idea.

LMP1 'Evo' look interesting though, id it ever sees the light of day. And only battery capacitor energy storage? Hmm!

[Everso Biggyballies]

Audi scraps LMS programme

   

Audi motorsport boss Wolfgang Ullrich has confirmed that the manufacturer will not attempt to defend its Le Mans Series title next season with the new R15 TDi.

Alexandre Premat and Mike Rockenfeller won the LMS title this year in an Audi R10, but Ullrich says in this week's Autosport that the decision not to return was made to save money.

"We will not participate in the LMS," he said. "We all have to face that the economy is moving and everyone has to put something into their pocket to save money.

"The LMS has grown quite significantly but you have to face the fact that to make the best out of less money, there is no choice but to cut parts of the programme."

The Le Mans 24 Hours is, so far, the only confirmed outing for the R15 beyond the American Le Mans Series season-opener, the Sebring 12 Hours, in March.

But Ullrich says a decision about a tenth consecutive full ALMS campaign is still to be made.

"We are still in discussion about the American programme," he said. "There has to be a board decision to do it, but we are all working on it very hard."

Audi stalwarts Emanuele Pirro and Frank Biela, who have five Le Mans wins each with the marque, are likely to race Audis again next year despite not having their contracts renewed this season. Both are expected to race the new R8 GT3 car for teams in Europe.

My own thoughts are that they would have to decide to do either the full LMS or ALMS series to justify the costs of developing the new R15..... So far they have said no to the LMS, which would indicate perhaps that the ALMS would be safe.  Of course as far as ALMS is concerned we know that BMW are in it next year with the M3 launched and tested at Sebring recently (Pics and story in the ALMS thread)  That may demand a thought that Audi need to be there to help the US Audi brand develop or at least show that anything BMW can do they can do better..... Bragging rights.

[Everso Biggyballies]

Re the above No R15 for LMS, I forgot to mention that there will still be an Audi prescence in LMS....

They announced plans recently to run the (enclosed) race version of their roadgoing R8  'Supercar' in the new Prod based GT3 class, but it will not be as a works effort, rather they will build the cars and assist privateer teams.... A bit like Porsche do with their Supercup racers and latest series 997's whatever they are now, I assume.  The car was officially unveiled this week at Essen ....


Audi R8 GT3 race car debuts at Essen Motor Show

Audi’s motorsport division announced plans back in August to launch a 500hp-plus (373kW) version of the R8 for use in next year’s GT3 series, and today the car made its debut at the Essen Motor Show in Germany.

The new car has been designed for private customer teams and fully conforms to the production-based GT3 regulations, which means they will be allowable in numerous national and international competitions.

Because the GT3 regulations prohibit the use of AWD, the Audi R8 comes with a modified RWD powertrain and a newly developed six-speed sequential sports gearbox. The suspension is almost completely stock, with most of the modifications focusing on weight reduction and improving the car’s aerodynamics package. A modified front end and a large rear-wing generate the required downforce for the race track.

The R8 race car, which bears the project name ‘R16’ within Audi’s motorsport division, has already conducted a number of shakedown tests at the hands of Audi factory driver Frank Biela. The latest prototype was also being tested by German tuning firm ABT Sportsline, and Audi has confirmed that three additional cars will be built for the actual Le Mans race, and as many as eight private team cars could also be built if interest is high enough. Audi Motorsport itself does not plan to campaign the car however, reports Sweden's Auto Motor & Sport.

The new R8 race car is joined in Essen by other members of the Audi motorsport family, including this year’s winning Le Mans car, the Audi R10 TDI driven by Rinaldo Capello, Tom Kristensen and Allan McNish, and the Audi A4 DTM in which Timo Scheider clinched the championship title just a few weeks ago.

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[Mothers Worry]

Chevrolet pull out of Le Mans 

From autosport.com:

Chevrolet pull out of Le Mans 

Thursday, December 18th 2008, 12:24 GMT

Chevrolet will not return to the Le Mans 24 Hours next season, according to this week's Autosport magazine.

The American manufacturer's Corvettes have won at La Sarthe four times since 2000 but has been told to reduce its racing budget next year.

The GT1 programme has been scrapped so Chevrolet can concentrate on the new GT2 Corvette, which will be introduced in the second half of the 2009 season.

But Steve Wesoloski, road racing boss of Chevrolet's parent company General Motors, denied that a decision had been made.

"We are still going ahead with our plans for a reduced programme of Sebring, Long Beach and Le Mans," he said. "No one has told me otherwise. We are, of course, prepared for all eventualities. It all hinges on what happens in Washington."

[Mothers Worry]

Saulnier switch to Mazda engines

From autosport.com:

Saulnier switch to Mazda engines

Friday, December 19th 2008, 15:29 GMT

The Saulnier Racing team will field two Mazda-engined LMP2 Pescarolos in next season's Le Mans Series and will apply to run both in the Le Mans 24 Hours.

The team finished third in the LMP2 class with a Judd-powered Pescarolo in this year's 24 Hours and also entered an LMP1 version, but they will switch to two LMP2 cars in 2009 after agreeing a deal for AER-developeed Mazda MZR-R engines.

Saulnier Racing president Jacques Nicolet believes his team's partnership with Mazda will help them to challenge for class victories.

"Our alliance with Mazda is crucial for the development of our team in the LMP2 category," he said. "We are very proud to be working alongside the only Japanese constructor to have triumphed at the Le Mans 24 Hours and we are confident that this partnership will be very beneficial to the future of our team.

"We have already been won over by the determination of everyone at Mazda France, and their president Thierry Guillemot, to ensure everything is in place to make this new collaboration a huge success in 2009."

[Ant]

I haven't really been keeping up with the news lately, but has the LMP1 and LMP2  classes been hit hard of late, or is that going ok, with the who financial crisis?

[Mothers Worry]

Oreca to launch Formula Le Mans car 

From autosport.com:

Oreca to launch Formula Le Mans car 

Monday, December 22nd 2008, 11:10 GMT

The car will be used in the new one-make endurance racing feeder series, announced by Le Mans 24 Hours organisers the ACO at this year's event in June.

Formula Le Mans will be a 14-round championship next year, run over seven meetings - five at Le Mans Series rounds - and will conclude with a three-hour enduro. The other races will be an hour long with an obligatory driver change.

The aim of the series is to attract young drivers into racing prototypes and to give them experience of the cars before they enter the Le Mans 24 Hours.

The 430bhp LMP2-spec car tested for the first time at Paul Ricard last month and will be launched to the public at the Birmingham NEC on January 8.

[Mothers Worry]

McNish: New Audi can win Le Mans 

From autosport.com:

McNish: New Audi can win Le Mans 

Saturday, December 27th 2008, 11:45 GMT

Allan McNish says Audi can repeat their Le Mans 24 Hours victory with the new R15 TDI diesel-powered prototype next year, despite only having one build-up race to prepare the car for sportscar racing's blue riband event in June.

Audi has decided not to continue with its Le Mans Series and American Le Mans Series programmes in 2009 and will instead only enter the Sebring 12 Hours in March and the 24 Hours at La Sarthe.

And while rivals Peugeot enjoyed a performance advantage over Audi at Le Mans in 2008, and will be even more determined to win their home event after being defeated by the German manufacturer this year, McNish is convinced that the R15 TDI will be fast and reliable enough to compete.

"I haven't driven the car, but the reason I think we can win is because Audi have never, in my experience, done anything by half," said McNish.

"When they compete, they race with a car that is already proven in reliability and performance gain. And as much as we have got some regulation changes which are going to make it very difficult, with regards to the petrol engines and things like that, we are going to make a step forward.

"Looking at Peugeot we are going to have to make a big step forward because they had an advantage.

"But we beat them on the human terms this year and we will have to beat them on the car terms as well because they won't make that same mistake twice."

McNish, who scored his second Le Mans 24 Hours victory last summer, admitted that he was naturally disappointed not to be racing more in 2009, but added that he didn't think it would have any impact on Audi's competitiveness at Sebring and Le Mans.

"At the moment it's just two races," said McNish. "We unfortunately confirmed that the Le Mans Series and the American Le Mans Series were not going to happen which was a surprise.

"But the one thing I would say is that there is still a very strong motorsport bloodline at Audi and that commitment and support is still there, it's just that it's on a leaner level than it has been lately.

"We'll still be at the two biggest sportscar races though and it's with the new car, so we'll come out fighting."

[Mothers Worry]

Kristensen looking forward to R15 

From autosport.com:

Kristensen looking forward to R15 

Tuesday, December 30th 2008, 13:56 GMT

Tom Kristensen says he is looking forward to the debut of Audi's new R15 TDi prototype next season and is confident that the new car will be able to challenge for victory at Le Mans in its first year.

The eight-time Le Mans 24 Hours winner has tasted success at La Sarthe in both the Audi R8 and R10 and believes the first new Audi LMP1 car in three years can continue the German manufacturer's winning tradition.

"For sure I have seen it, it looks stunning and it will be very good, there's no doubt," Kristensen told autosport.com. "It's not running yet, but like all Audi projects it was started before the last car finished racing.

"The potential of what we've got here is very good. Audi is very good and they have not made a new sportscar in three years, so there's no doubt that it's going to be interesting for all of us."

[Everso Biggyballies]

Audi R15 will not be seen until March.

Audi say they will not unveil their all-new turbodiesel R15 LMP1 car until it makes its competitive debut at the Sebring 12 Hours in March.

The successor to the multi-title-winning R10 TDi completed what Audi described as a 'roll-out' at an undisclosed Spanish track before Christmas, with 2008 Le Mans 24 Hours winners Allan McNish, Tom Kristensen and Rinaldo Capello sharing driving duties.

No photographs or specifications have been released, and there are no plans to do so until March.

"The car ran as planned before Christmas," an Audi spokeswoman revealed.

"It was just a roll-out and everything went to plan.  There will be more tests this month, but the plan is to keep the car a secret until Sebring. There will be no official photographs until the week of the race."

[Oldtony]

Rumour has it that the Charouz team who ran the Aston Martin V12 in thier LMP car last year will be running the Audi R10 engines used in the works cars last year, while the R15 is a completely new power plant.
Don't know what Aston are doing for representation in LMP this year.

[Everso Biggyballies]

Don't know what Aston are doing for representation in LMP this year.

Not LMP related, but other Aston News in GT2.  Good to see they (the FIA) are now err... 'turning a blind eye' to certain disabilities if the driver can prove ability.


Drayson Aston joins LMS field

The reorganised Drayson Racing team will enter their Aston Martin Vantage GT2 in the full Le Mans Series season in 2009, and hope to add the Le Mans 24 Hours to their schedule.

Last year the team, running under the Drayson-Barwell banner, focused primarily on the American Le Mans Series, but this time they only plan to participate in three ALMS races - the Sebring 12 Hours, the Petit Le Mans and the season finale at Laguna Seca - around their European campaign.

Paul Drayson and Jonny Cocker will remain as the team's full-time driver pairing, and the squad will continue to be an official partner of Aston Martin.

Drayson Racing also intend to enter the non-championship events at Fuji and Shanghai in November, and hope to earn a Le Mans invitation.

"My ambition is to race at the Le Mans 24 Hours, that's the whole focus of the programme," said Drayson at the Autosport International Show. "We hope that's going to be a goal we can realise this year.

"I was born blind in one eye so it's always been a bit of a battle to show that you can be safe and confident. There has been a long-standing rule at the highest level that had an absolute ban on people doing the top level of racing like Formula One or the Le Mans 24 Hours if you're blind in one eye.

"But I'm really pleased that in December of last year the FIA changed the rules. Now, if you can prove that you're competent and that you're safe, no disability is a bar - which is the way it should be.

[Everso Biggyballies]

Audi R10s revived, Kolles enters customer team

Audi will be represented on the 2009 Le Mans Series grid after all, following an arrangement with former Midland/Spyker F1 managing director Colin Kolles to purchase two Audi R10 TDIs for the European-based championship. Kolles, whose TME Racing team fields Audi A4s in DTM, will expand his operation this season to include an attack the five-round sportscar series, plus a planned two-car entry in the 24 Hours of Le Mans.

Audi pulled the plug on its factory full-season sportscar programs in the American Le Mans Series and Le Mans Series last November, and has since concentrated on developing its next generation diesel prototype, the R15 TDI. The new LM P1 contender only has two races on its plate: the Twelve Hours of Sebring and 24 Hours of Le Mans, both of which will be run by the factory Team Joest squad.

Kolles may be making his first entry into sportscar racing, he is no stranger to he world of motorsports. The German native began his career in rallying before co-founding his own F3 team in 2000. Kolles, a qualified dentist, quickly rose to the top and made his mark in Formula One, becoming the managing director of the Midland F1 team, in its various short term identities, which later became  Force India.

Following his departure from F1, Kolles established his own DTM team in 2006, fielding two Audi A4s. Last season, Christijan Albers and Katherine Legge were at the wheel of TME Racing's two 2006-specification A4s.

Exact details of Kolles new program have not been announced, but Audi has pledged to provide a support package, much like it did in the past when customer teams campaigned the Audi R8. Whether this leads to factory drivers being loaned to Kolles, is unclear.

[Everso Biggyballies]

Its always good to be able to post growth of motor racing in certain areas, but particularly it  is the case in these days of economic doom and gloom where the news has generally been bad......This is one of those good news days, with not only the news of more LMP1 through Kolles and Audi as the previous post, but also....

Strakka steps up to LMP1 with Ginetta-Zytek

With two seasons of LM GT1 racing under their belts, Strakka Racing is moving up to the prototype ranks for 2009. The British-based team led by Peter Hardman confirmed Monday that it will enter the LM P1 category of the European-based Le Mans Series with a Ginetta-Zytek GZ09S. The team has also submitted an entry to the 24 Hours of Le Mans, with hopes of making its second consecutive appearance in the twice-around-the-clock French classic.

Last year, Hardman and co-driver Nick Leventis paired with Alexandre Negrao in Strakka's Aston Martin DBR9 at Le Mans, run under the Team Vitaphone banner. The team also contested the Spa and Silverstone rounds of the Le Mans Series with its GT1 challenger, but had not expected to jump into the top prototype category so quickly.

"We were always going to get there in the end, this is just a bit earlier than originally planned," Hardman explained. "There were certain elements associated with running another season in GT1 that needed to come together, and that prospect was looking increasingly unlikely. We decided to check out other options, and while the elements we required for GT1 proved elusive, they gelled very neatly for an LMP1 project."

Hardman and Leventis tested the Ginetta-Zytek at Valancia in October, and the pieces started to fall into place. What originally was intended for a move into the LM P2 ranks in 2009 turned into a more accelerated program following the positive outcome of the test.

"Having started to look towards running a prototype in 2009, our initial thoughts had been focused on LMP2, and we had spoken to a number of manufacturers, including Porsche," Hardman added. "As part of that process I invited Ginetta-Zytek to join us in Valencia, where we were already booked to test the Aston. They had no LMP2 car available, but offered to bring along an LMP1 chassis instead."

Strakka Racing is the fourth team to commit to running a Ginetta-Zytek in the Le Mans Series, but is the first with an LMP1 machine. Barazi-Epsilon, GAC Racing Team (formally Trading Performance) and Quifel-ASM Team all have confirmed entries in the lighter-and-more-nimble LMP2 category. However Corsa Motorsports will campaign a petrol-electirc hybrid version of the LMP1 car in the American Le Mans Series season.

[Mothers Worry]

Aston Martin unveils works LMP1 plan 

From autosport.com:

Aston Martin unveils works LMP1 plan 

Tuesday, January 27th 2009, 00:00 GMT

Aston Martin has confirmed plans to take on Peugeot and Audi in a bid for outright victory in the Le Mans 24 Hours this season.

The British manufacturer is to develop a V12-powered LMP1 car, which will be based on the 2008 Charouz Racing-run Lola that used the engine last year, but featuring significant aerodynamic re-profiling as well as some of the marque's styling cues.

The Aston Martin Racing-run cars, which have yet to be given an official codename, will be petrol-powered and carry the famous Gulf livery.

They are expected to make their first public appearance at a test in Paul Ricard on March 8, and will make their racing debuts in the Le Mans Series round at Catalunya on April 5, ahead of the 24 Hours in June.

Although Peugeot and Audi are clear favourites for Le Mans victory next year, a raft of changes to technical regulations to even up the performance of diesel and petrol powered cars should boost Aston Martin's chances of taking on the established front runners.

Aston Martin chairman David Richards admitted that the company's sights were set on victory, with this year marking the 50th anniversary of his company's only previous triumph in the event.

"How on earth did we get here? How could Aston Martin be so audacious as to go to Le Mans and challenge the benchmark teams with their turbo-diesel engines and the record of experience that they have had over the last years?" said Richards.

"2009 is a hugely significant year for Aston Martin at Le Mans and the challenge of reclaiming victory in this famous race for Aston Martin and Great Britain was simply too great to ignore. It's a leap of faith and a step into the unknown for us, it really is a David and Goliath exercise, but it is that British fighting spirit that we are going to give it a try and see what we can do.

"However, we do not underestimate the task. While we have won the GT1 class for the last two years, competing against the proven speed and endurance of the diesel-powered cars, with all their years of winning the prototype class, will be a massive undertaking. But one thing is for certain that unless you give it a go, you are not going to achieve anything."

The Charouz driving squad of Stefan Mucke, Jan Charouz and Tomas Enge will be retained by Aston Martin Racing for the Le Mans effort and a full LMS campaign.

The trio will also be joined by Briton Darren Turner, who has won the GT1 class with Aston Martin Racing for the last two years, and Harold Primat. A sixth driver is expected to be announced shortly.

Richards added that AMR have filed three entries for the 24 Hours, but that plans for a third car are far from finalised.

"We have the first test at Paul Ricard at the beginning of March, we will enter two cars in each of the Le Mans rounds, and we will have a test programme throughout the year," he said.

"There is the hope that we will run a third car at Le Mans, and we have actually entered three cars, but the third car is not yet a certainty."